A recent study has raised alarming concerns, predicting that by the year 2050, an estimated 3.8 billion people, which is about 60 percent of the global population, will be either overweight or obese.
The study highlights the significant rise in overweight and obesity rates over the past three decades, a trend that continues to show no signs of slowing down.
Experts predict that, by 2050, nearly two out of every three adults over the age of 25 will be affected by these conditions.
The report warns that by 2050, close to a quarter of the world’s population living with obesity will be aged 65 or older. This could have serious implications for public health and society at large.
The research also notes that childhood obesity is expected to increase dramatically, with a projected rise of 121 percent in the next 30 years.
This rise in childhood obesity is directly linked to the increase in adult obesity rates. Over the past 30 years, the global prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents has risen by an alarming 244 percent, and experts predict that the trend will continue in the coming decades.
The study, published in The Lancet medical journal on 3 March 2025, is titled “Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050.”
In this study, overweight and obesity are defined as abnormal or excessive fat accumulation that presents significant health risks. For adults, a body mass index (BMI) of over 25 is considered overweight, while a BMI above 30 is classified as obese.
Obesity is becoming one of the world’s most serious public health challenges in the 21st century, affecting people in every country in the Western Pacific region.
It is a leading cause of numerous health problems and premature deaths, including cardiovascular diseases, common cancers, diabetes, and osteoarthritis, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Obesity results from a combination of factors, including genetics, lifestyle choices, diet, physical activity levels, and various medical conditions. While it was once predominantly seen in high-income countries, the prevalence of obesity is now rising sharply in low- and middle-income countries.
The study indicates that the rates of overweight and obesity have been climbing in low- and middle-income countries, especially in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. This increase is attributed to a variety of factors.
One major factor highlighted by the study is the role of commercial determinants, particularly agricultural subsidies. These subsidies have led to changes in the global food production and supply system, which have had a significant impact on the diets of populations around the world.
Furthermore, multinational food and beverage companies, along with fast-food chains, have shifted their focus from high-income countries to low- and middle-income nations. This shift has increased the exposure of these populations to unhealthy food choices, putting them at greater risk of developing obesity.
In Kenya, a report from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) 2022 reveals that approximately 45 percent of women and 39 percent of men are classified as overweight or obese, with the majority of these individuals living in urban areas.
This is a growing concern for public health in the country, as more people are at risk of serious health problems linked to obesity.
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