Kenyans could soon face another rise in fuel prices as global conflicts continue to affect the oil market, especially due to growing tensions in the Middle East.
On Saturday, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced a new fuel price adjustment that saw the cost of super petrol increase, while diesel and kerosene experienced a slight drop.
According to EPRA’s latest review, the price of super petrol went up by Ksh2.69 per litre. Meanwhile, diesel and kerosene dropped by Ksh1.95 and Ksh2.06 per litre, respectively.
Following the changes, super petrol is now selling at Ksh177.32 per litre in Nairobi, diesel at Ksh162.91, and kerosene at Ksh146.93.
The upward adjustment in petrol prices has sparked concern, especially as it comes at a time when global oil markets are highly unstable due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Energy analysts warn that if the situation worsens, Kenyans might face even higher fuel prices in the near future.
In the past week alone, the oil market has been shaken by reports of drone attacks, missile strikes, and retaliatory threats between Israel and Iran.
These events have increased fears of a major conflict that could disrupt global oil supplies.
Iran is one of the most important oil producers within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and any damage to its oil facilities or a reduction in its output could significantly reduce the global supply of crude oil—leading to a spike in prices.
According to a report by Bloomberg, prices for oil futures have jumped sharply as a result of the uncertainty. The price of Brent crude, a key international benchmark, has risen by up to 13 percent, following news of Israel’s latest military actions against Iran. Experts warn that such geopolitical tensions could have serious and long-lasting effects on the oil supply chain.
The Middle East remains a crucial supplier of the world’s oil, and ongoing unrest in the region is increasing the likelihood of disruptions in critical oil transportation routes, such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
These routes are vital for global energy trade, and any interruption could slow down deliveries and raise shipping costs.
Energy specialists have observed that due to the rising risks and recent attacks, many oil tankers are now avoiding traditional routes through the Red Sea.
This rerouting is making oil transportation more expensive and is already contributing to higher global fuel prices. As Kenya imports almost all of its refined petroleum products, the country is especially vulnerable to such global shocks.
EPRA has stated that international oil prices play a major role in determining local pump prices. This means that if the instability in the Middle East continues, Kenyan consumers may have to pay even more for fuel in the coming weeks or months.
In its latest weekly economic review, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) reported an increase in international oil prices.
According to CBK, the price of Murban crude oil climbed to Ksh8,816.61 (USD 68.24) per barrel on June 12, up from Ksh8,383.79 (USD 64.89) on June 5. The central bank attributed the price hike to growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are making oil markets more volatile.
This rise in oil prices comes at a difficult time for Kenya, where high fuel costs are already affecting daily life. Since the country relies heavily on imported fuel, any increase in crude oil prices is quickly felt at both the wholesale and retail levels.
The result is that fuel becomes more expensive for motorists, businesses, and households. Continued instability in global oil markets may lead to even higher fuel prices, putting additional pressure on Kenyans, particularly low-income families and public transport users.
Additionally, EPRA’s data shows that the average landed cost of imported super petrol increased by 0.35 percent—from US$588.16 (Ksh76,166) per cubic metre in April 2025 to US$590.24 (Ksh76,436) in May 2025.
On the other hand, the cost of imported diesel dropped by 2.42 percent—from US$594.60 (Ksh77,000) to US$580.23 (Ksh75,139), while the price of kerosene fell by 5.14 percent—from US$599.84 (Ksh77,679) to US$569.00 (Ksh73,685) per cubic metre.
Despite the drop in diesel and kerosene prices, the rise in petrol costs signals that the global market remains unstable.
If tensions in the Middle East continue or escalate further, the cost of petroleum products in Kenya could increase again in the next pricing cycle.
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