A well-known aspirant in the Mbeere North by-election appears to be shifting allegiance to the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) after the Jubilee Party refused to hand him a nomination certificate.
Jacob Ireri Mbao, a prominent contender in the race, suffered a major setback this week when Jubilee, led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, informed him that the party would not present any candidate in the by-election.
Shortly after this disappointment, reports surfaced that Mbao held a meeting with Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku. The CS is closely associated with UDA and holds strong political influence in the region.
News of the meeting quickly sparked speculation that Mbao could be stepping aside in favour of UDA’s candidate, Leonard Muthende. If this happens, it would be a major advantage for UDA, given Mbao’s popularity and perceived support among local voters.
Ruku is widely seen as a key political figure and possible kingmaker in the area. His backing of Muthende, coupled with Mbao’s withdrawal, would consolidate support for UDA.
If Mbao exits the race, three major candidates would remain: Leonard Muthende of UDA, Newton Karish of the Democratic Party (DP), and Duncan Mbui of Chama Cha Kazi (CCK), who has been marketing himself as the alternative to the frontrunners.
Why Jubilee Rejected Mbao
A letter dated October 1 and signed by Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni formally notified Mbao that the party would not issue him a nomination certificate. Instead, Jubilee stated it would support the Democratic Party candidate.
The letter explained that the decision was based on an agreement within the United Opposition coalition, led by figures such as Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua, to present a single candidate in the November 27, 2025, Mbeere North by-election.
Mbao, who is hard of hearing, has been one of the leading aspirants hoping to take over from Geoffrey Ruku as MP. Many in the region saw his candidacy as an opportunity for Jubilee to re-establish its relevance locally.
Earlier, on August 7, Kioni confirmed he had hosted a delegation led by Mbao, signaling initial interest from the party.
“Today I hosted a delegation from Mbeere North led by Hon. Jacob Ireri, a Jubilee Party aspirant,” Kioni announced at the time.
Then in September, Jubilee’s Deputy Organizing Secretary, Pauline Njoroge, hinted that the party was unlikely to participate directly in the race. She noted that Jubilee’s National Executive Council had not issued nomination papers to anyone, and the party would instead support a candidate selected jointly by the united opposition.
“The National Executive Council, which Uhuru Kenyatta chairs, has not issued nomination papers to any aspirant for the Mbeere North parliamentary by-election,” Njoroge said.
With Jubilee officially stepping aside, Mbao’s next move is drawing even more attention. His potential endorsement of UDA could significantly reshape the race and voter dynamics in the constituency.
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