Kenyans may soon face a major increase in fuel prices, with petrol expected to rise by as much as Ksh53.4 per litre in the next pricing review.
If this happens, the price of petrol could hit around Ksh231.68 per litre, placing even more pressure on households, businesses, and transport costs across the country.
The warning was issued by Martin Chomba, the Chairperson of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK), during an interview with Inooro FM on Tuesday, April 7.
According to Chomba, the expected increase in the next fuel review, which is scheduled for April 14, could fall between Ksh30 and Ksh60 per litre, depending on how the market behaves in the coming days.
Chomba explained that these projections are based on the weighted average cost of fuel shipments received at the Port of Mombasa between March 9 and April 10.
He noted that the current calm in pump prices should not mislead consumers, saying it is only temporary and mainly reflects the cost of fuel that was imported earlier, before the latest rise in global oil prices.
According to POAK, most of the fuel currently being sold in the country was brought in nearly a month ago, before international crude oil prices started rising sharply.
This means the current prices at the pump do not yet fully reflect the new global market realities. Once the newer shipments begin entering the market, the impact is expected to be felt directly by Kenyan consumers.
Regional fuel price movements are also increasing pressure on Kenya’s market. Chomba pointed to Tanzania’s recent move to raise fuel prices by more than 30 per cent, saying Kenya may be forced to take a similar path.
If Kenya were to mirror that increase, it would translate to a rise of about Ksh53.4 per litre for petrol, pushing prices to record highs.
He warned that failing to adjust prices in line with import costs could create serious supply problems. In his view, keeping prices artificially low for too long may discourage importers and distributors, eventually leading to shortages at fuel stations.
“This month, Tanzania increased fuel prices by over 30 per cent. Without misleading Kenyans, fuel prices must go up. If prices are not increased, it will become difficult to find fuel,” Chomba said.
He further stressed that Kenya remains highly dependent on constant fuel imports because the country does not have enough strategic fuel reserves to protect itself during global shocks or delays in supply chains.
According to Chomba, Kenya’s current emergency fuel stock is limited. He said the country would face a major crisis if no fuel ship docked at the Port of Mombasa, noting that the petroleum currently in the pipeline system can only sustain the country for about 21 to 30 days at most.
Beyond that, shortages would likely begin affecting transport, businesses, and other critical sectors.
He added that the timing is especially sensitive because the country is heading into a period where schools are closed and travel demand around the Easter holiday could still affect consumption patterns.
On the government side, Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura moved to calm fears about an immediate increase. Speaking on April 3, he said the government was not currently considering raising fuel prices in the next review because another oil shipment had already arrived in advance.
Mwaura urged Kenyans to remain patient, saying the government would monitor the situation until the end of April before making any firm decisions.
“At the moment, we are not looking at increasing fuel prices in the next review because we already have a consignment in advance. Let us wait until the end of April and then assess the situation,” Mwaura said.
He explained that Kenya normally imports around eight shiploads of fuel every month, and according to him, the country has established systems that help stabilize both fuel supply and pricing.
“This April, we have already received the next consignment. We usually import eight shiploads, and we have a good system for stabilising our supplies. There is no cause for alarm because the government is actively handling the situation,” Mwaura added in an interview with Channel Africa.
Even with these assurances, signs of supply stress are already beginning to show in different parts of the country. Smaller fuel stations, especially those in rural areas, are reportedly struggling to access enough stock.
These small retailers make up about 68 per cent of fuel stations in Kenya and account for nearly 40 to 45 per cent of the country’s petroleum throughput, making them an important part of the national distribution network. Limited supply to these stations could quickly create shortages in remote towns and trading centres.
Reports from some regions, including Kirinyaga, suggest that fuel is already available in storage facilities but has not yet been delivered to retail outlets. This delay is creating concern among dealers who fear that continued disruptions could worsen the situation.
The issue comes at a time when Kenya is also dealing with an ongoing scandal involving billions of shillings worth of substandard fuel imports. Chomba said some of these questionable shipments are already in storage, although it remains unclear whether they have been officially released into the market.
While trying to shed light on Kenya’s often complex and opaque fuel supply chain, Chomba explained that once ships arrive at the Port of Mombasa, the fuel is offloaded into storage tanks controlled by the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC), other government storage facilities, and some tanks that remained after the collapse of the former Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited (KPRL).
He clarified that although the fuel may be stored in government-owned facilities, it still legally belongs to the private companies that imported it.
The fuel can only be released to retailers, especially those with their own storage capacity, after all taxes and duties have been paid. However, the process is not always fast. Clearance by the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) can take several days, and these delays often slow down how quickly the product reaches filling stations and eventually consumers.
Chomba also spoke about the growing concerns over fuel quality. According to reports, some imported shipments may have higher sulphur levels than the preferred national standards.
Although this type of fuel can still be used in vehicles, concerns remain over whether it fully complies with Kenya’s fuel regulations and what long-term effects it could have on engines, fuel efficiency, and vehicle maintenance costs.
He noted that while the government has the option of using the Petroleum Development Levy to cushion consumers from a steep rise, the final price at the pump will still largely depend on market conditions.
In the end, Chomba emphasized that global oil prices, import costs, taxation, and the role of private sector suppliers will remain the biggest factors in determining what Kenyans pay at fuel stations in the coming weeks.
With pressure building both internationally and locally, many consumers are now anxiously waiting for the April 14 price review, which could significantly affect transport fares and the cost of living nationwide.
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