Nearly half of Kenyans believe that ODM leader Raila Odinga will break ties with President William Ruto before the 2027 general elections, according to a new opinion poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA).
The survey, released on Wednesday, May 28, reveals that 46% of respondents expect Raila to walk away from the broad-based government and shift from being Ruto’s political partner to becoming his opponent.
The study shows that a significant number of Kenyans anticipate that Raila will return to his traditional role in the opposition. Out of those surveyed, 28% think Raila will run for the presidency once again, while 18% believe he will instead back a different candidate to challenge President Ruto.
Even though Raila is currently working closely with Ruto in a partnership that many see as controversial, a good number of Kenyans—especially those who support the current administration—still believe Raila will eventually become Ruto’s political rival.
According to the TIFA report, more than one-third of the broad-based government supporters expect Raila to abandon the current unity deal. Among them, 25% believe he will run for president himself, while 13% think he will support another candidate against Ruto.
Among Kenyans who oppose the broad-based government, slightly more than half expect Raila to return to the opposition. Of these, 31% believe he will offer himself as a presidential candidate, while 22% think he will support someone else to take on Ruto in the 2027 election.
On the other hand, a notable portion of Kenyans—23%—believe Raila will continue to support Ruto in the next elections. This belief is even stronger among supporters of the current political arrangement, with 38% expressing confidence that Raila and Ruto will still be allies heading into 2027.
This evolving political relationship has its roots in the events of August 2024. At that time, Raila announced that he had “donated some of his experts” to President Ruto after the head of state dissolved his entire cabinet following widespread unrest sparked by protests against a controversial finance bill.
Several prominent ODM leaders were appointed to top cabinet positions in Ruto’s government, including John Mbadi (Treasury), Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives), Ali Hassan Joho (Mining), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), and Beatrice Askul (EAC & ASALs). This move marked the start of a surprising collaboration between the two political giants.
In return, Ruto publicly pledged his full backing for Raila’s bid to become the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson.
The president also reportedly allocated significant resources to support Raila’s campaign. However, despite the effort, Raila failed to secure the position in the AUC elections held in February.
After that, Ruto and Raila moved to formalize their political cooperation by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on March 7.
The signing took place at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) in Nairobi, in a ceremony attended by key leaders from both Kenya Kwanza and ODM.
The MoU outlined a ten-point agenda aimed at guiding the collaboration between the two leaders. It included commitments such as the full implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, measures to combat youth unemployment, and the enforcement of the two-thirds gender rule to ensure fair representation of women in governance.
The agreement also emphasized the importance of inclusivity, with both leaders pledging to promote fairness in public appointments and ensure that Kenyans from all religions and political backgrounds are treated equally in opportunities and government services.
Despite this formal agreement and public show of unity, neither Ruto nor Raila has made any official statement about forming a political coalition ahead of the 2027 elections.
Meanwhile, their allies continue to send mixed signals about whether the two leaders will stick together or go their separate ways when the country heads to the polls.
As it stands, the public remains divided and uncertain, with speculation growing about Raila’s true intentions and what role he will play in shaping Kenya’s political landscape in the next general elections.
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