Fuel station owners in Kenya have raised fresh concerns that pump prices could rise again soon, despite recent efforts by the government to lower the cost of fuel.
The warning comes from the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (PAOK), which says the current measures being implemented may not bring real or lasting relief to ordinary Kenyans.
Speaking during an interview on NTV Kenya on Tuesday, PAOK Chairperson Martin Chomba explained that reducing Value Added Tax (VAT) on petroleum products is not enough to control fuel prices.
According to him, deeper problems in how fuel is imported, distributed, and priced in Kenya are still unresolved. Because of this, any short-term relief from tax cuts could quickly disappear, leading to even higher prices in the near future.
Chomba pointed out that the government’s approach to managing the fuel sector remains weak, especially in areas such as procurement and supply chain control.
He warned that unless these systems are improved, Kenyans should prepare for more expensive fuel in the coming months.
Structural Problems Still Affect Fuel Prices
The association insists that the biggest challenge is not taxes alone, but long-standing structural issues in the petroleum industry.
One of the major concerns raised is the weakened role of the National Oil Corporation of Kenya, which previously played a more active role in stabilizing the market.
Chomba argued that recent tax adjustments, including the reduction of VAT, may provide temporary relief but will not solve the underlying issues affecting fuel pricing.
He stressed that unless the government strengthens institutions like the National Oil Corporation and takes a more active role in the sector, the country will continue to face unstable and rising fuel costs.
Concerns Over Use of Fuel Stabilisation Funds
Fuel station owners also criticized the government for not fully utilizing the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) Fund. Out of the available Ksh17 billion meant to stabilize fuel prices, only Ksh6.2 billion was released.
According to PAOK, this decision could leave the country vulnerable if global oil prices rise, especially with ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Chomba warned that if the current situation continues for the next few months, Kenya may face even higher fuel prices because there will be no sufficient funds left to cushion consumers.
He explained that fuel prices in Kenya are calculated based on the average cost of imported shipments arriving around the 9th or 10th of each month. Without enough financial support to stabilize these costs, any increase in global oil prices will directly affect local pump prices.
He also questioned the logic behind taxing fuel through VAT, arguing that the government does not add any value to the product. In his view, VAT is supposed to apply when value is added to goods or services, which he says is not the case with fuel.
Government Tax Changes May Not Be Enough
The government has recently made several adjustments to fuel taxes in response to public concern over the high cost of living. VAT on petroleum products was first reduced from 16 percent to 13 percent, and later lowered further to 8 percent.
While these changes were intended to ease pressure on consumers, industry players believe they are not enough to protect Kenyans from global market changes.
Fuel prices in the country are still heavily influenced by international crude oil prices and supply chain challenges. As a result, even with lower taxes, Kenyans may continue to feel the impact of rising global oil costs.
Recent Fuel Price Changes by EPRA
The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) has recently adjusted fuel prices several times. At one point, the regulator increased the price of Super Petrol by Ksh28.69 per litre and Diesel by Ksh40.30 per litre. However, after the government revised tax policies, prices were slightly reduced, with Super Petrol dropping by Ksh9.37 and Diesel by Ksh10.21 per litre.
Following these adjustments, current pump prices in Nairobi for the April 16 to May 14, 2026 cycle stand at:
- Super Petrol: Ksh197.60 per litre
- Diesel: Ksh196.63 per litre
- Kerosene: Ksh152.78 per litre
Despite these reductions, fuel remains expensive for many Kenyans, and the fear of another increase continues to grow.
Blame on Past Policy Decisions
Chomba also linked the current challenges to decisions made in the past, particularly during the administration of Mwai Kibaki.
He claimed that earlier policy changes reduced the government’s involvement in the petroleum sector, weakening its ability to control prices and manage supply effectively.
He compared the fuel sector to agricultural markets, where the government does not control prices of goods like vegetables and potatoes, leaving them to be determined by market forces.
According to him, a similar situation now exists in the fuel industry, where private companies dominate the market with limited government control.
Call for Stronger Government Role
To address these challenges, PAOK is urging the government to take a more active role in the petroleum sector.
This includes strengthening state institutions, improving supply chain management, and diversifying sources of oil imports to reduce dependence on a few suppliers.
Chomba emphasized that countries with strong national oil companies are better able to control fuel prices and protect their citizens from global shocks.
Without such systems in place, Kenya may continue to experience frequent and unpredictable fuel price changes.
In summary, while recent tax reductions may offer temporary relief, petrol station owners believe that without major structural reforms, Kenyans should expect fuel prices to rise again in the near future.
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