Kenya Met Issues New Forecast as 2026 El Niño Intensifies
The Kenya Meteorological Service has warned Kenyans to prepare for above-average rainfall expected between late September and December 2026 as the developing El Niño weather pattern continues to strengthen.
The latest October-December (OND) weather outlook, released on Wednesday, August 26, indicates that several parts of the country could experience heavier-than-normal rains during the coming rainy season.
Kenya Met has cautioned that the increased rainfall could lead to flooding, landslides and other weather-related emergencies, especially in areas that are already vulnerable to heavy rains and poor drainage.
According to the latest forecast, all 47 counties are expected to receive above-average rainfall during the season, although the amount and timing of the rains will vary from one region to another.
The Meteorological Service said rainfall is expected to build up gradually, with the Central region, Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin and Western Kenya likely to experience some of the highest rainfall intensity as the season progresses.
The weather department has also indicated that some counties could start receiving significant rainfall as early as the last week of September, while other areas are expected to experience the onset of the rains from the second week of October.
Kenya Met said the latest weather information shows that the 2026 El Niño event is continuing to intensify across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, a development that could influence rainfall patterns in different parts of Kenya.
Counties Expected to Receive Early Rains
Several counties in Western Kenya and the Rift Valley are expected to be among the first areas to experience the onset of the rains.
These include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu.
Other counties expected to begin receiving rainfall in September include Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
Residents in these areas have been encouraged to remain alert as the rains could become heavier with time. Communities living near rivers, steep slopes and other flood-prone areas may need to take additional precautions as rainfall increases.
Central Kenya and Nairobi to Receive Rains in October
In Central Kenya and parts of the eastern highlands, the onset of the rains is expected to come slightly later.
Kenya Met forecasts that Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi will begin experiencing the rains during the second and third weeks of October.
Nairobi County is also expected to receive the onset of the rains during the same period.
The forecast means that residents in Nairobi and surrounding counties should also prepare for periods of heavy rainfall, particularly in areas that are prone to flash floods because of inadequate drainage, blocked waterways or development along drainage channels.
Coastal and Northern Counties
A similar delayed rainfall pattern has been forecast for parts of the Coast and northern Kenya.
At the Coast, Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi, as well as areas around the Tana Delta, are expected to experience the onset of the rains later in the season.
In northern Kenya, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are also expected to follow a similar pattern.
Meanwhile, counties in the southeastern and eastern parts of the country are expected to receive their rains later in October.
These include Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita-Taveta, together with inland parts of Tana River County.
According to the forecast, these areas are expected to begin experiencing moderate to heavy rainfall between the third and fourth weeks of October.
Warmer Temperatures Also Expected
Apart from the increased rainfall, Kenya Met has also forecast warmer-than-average temperatures across the country during the October-December season.
The highest temperatures are expected to be recorded in coastal counties and northern Kenya, where temperatures are normally higher compared to other parts of the country.
Kenya Met explained that the warmer conditions are linked to the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a weather system associated with the movement of warm and humid air.
The combination of above-average rainfall and warmer temperatures could result in rapidly changing weather conditions in different parts of the country.
Kenyans Urged to Prepare
With the forecast pointing to an increasingly wet October-December season, residents are advised to take early precautions rather than wait until heavy rains begin.
People living in flood-prone areas should remain alert to weather updates and avoid crossing flooded rivers or roads during periods of heavy rainfall. Those living near steep slopes should also be cautious because prolonged heavy rainfall can increase the risk of landslides.
Farmers, transport operators, businesses and county governments are equally expected to use the forecast to prepare for the possible effects of the heavy rains.
The latest outlook comes as authorities continue monitoring the developing 2026 El Niño phenomenon, which Kenya Met says is becoming stronger and could significantly influence weather conditions across the country in the coming months.
Kenyans are therefore encouraged to regularly follow official weather updates from the Kenya Meteorological Service and take necessary precautions as the rainy season approaches.
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