The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a serious warning about a looming food crisis, estimating that around 2.8 million people could face severe food shortages between April and June 2026. This situation is mainly due to the expected below-average rainfall during the March-May rainy season.
In a report released on Friday, February 28, NDMA analyzed the food security situation in 23 Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) counties and revealed that the number of people in urgent need of humanitarian assistance has increased by 650,000. In February 2024, about 2.15 million people required aid, but this number is expected to rise significantly in the coming months.
Hardest-Hit Regions
NDMA has highlighted that people living in ASAL counties such as Turkana, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, and Marsabit are among the worst affected. Additionally, those in marginal agricultural areas like Kilifi, Kwale, Meru North, and Makueni also require urgent assistance due to the harsh effects of the 2024 short rainy season.
Causes of Food Insecurity
Several factors are contributing to the worsening food crisis. These include:
- Irregular Rainfall & Climate Change: The insufficient rainfall expected in the coming months will reduce food production.
- Flash Floods & Displacement: Some areas have experienced heavy rains, leading to floods that destroy crops and displace families.
- High Cost of Living: The rising prices of essential food items have made it difficult for many families to afford basic meals.
- Poor Harvests: Below-average crop production due to unfavorable weather conditions has worsened food shortages.
- Livestock and Crop Diseases: The spread of diseases among animals and crops has further reduced food availability.
- Conflicts & Insecurity: Frequent conflicts in some regions have disrupted farming activities and food supply chains.
According to the NDMA report, the food crisis is worsening at an alarming rate. In July 2024, about 1 million people in ASAL counties needed emergency food aid, but by February 2025, this number had more than doubled to 2.15 million.
Rising Malnutrition Rates
The report also raised concerns about increasing cases of malnutrition, particularly among young children and pregnant or breastfeeding women. Children under six years old are at the highest risk of severe malnutrition.
Over the last eight months, the number of children under one year needing treatment for acute malnutrition has surged to 800,202. Meanwhile, cases among pregnant and breastfeeding women have risen to 120,732, indicating a worsening situation for vulnerable groups.
“Currently, 800,202 children between six months and five years require urgent treatment for acute malnutrition, up from 760,488 recorded previously. Similarly, 120,732 pregnant and breastfeeding women need nutritional support, compared to 112,401 in the past, showing increased vulnerability among these groups,” the report stated.
Climate Change Worsening the Situation
This warning from NDMA comes just a week after climate scientists from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) issued a separate alert about extreme heatwaves expected to hit East Africa.
According to IGAD, areas such as Eastern Kenya, South Sudan, Eastern Tanzania, Southern Sudan, and Southern Somalia are set to experience dangerously high temperatures. Scientists warned that prolonged heatwaves could further harm agricultural production and worsen food shortages.
People living in these regions have been urged to prepare for the harsh conditions, as extreme heat could severely affect human health, reduce water supply, and damage crops.
With both drought and rising temperatures posing significant threats, experts warn that urgent intervention is needed to prevent millions of Kenyans from slipping into severe hunger and malnutrition in the coming months.
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