Kenya’s political scene is already shifting as the country heads toward the highly anticipated 2027 General Election.
While the newly formed United Opposition continues debating who should carry their presidential ticket, President William Ruto is quietly dealing with a tough and sensitive dilemma — choosing the right running mate for his second-term bid.
Political analysts Masibo Lumala and Wilson Rotich argue that this decision could easily define Ruto’s political future. The person he selects will either strengthen his chances of re-election or weaken his support across key regions.
Intrigues and Pressure Around Ruto’s Running Mate Choice
According to analysts, Ruto is caught between competing political expectations. On one side, he has his current deputy, Kithure Kindiki, whose supporters — especially from Mount Kenya and parts of Meru — strongly believe he deserves to be retained. On the other side, new political interests and alliances keep emerging, forcing the president to rethink his strategy.
Professor Lumala, however, insists that two years is a long time in Kenyan politics. He says the political environment is likely to shift significantly before Ruto makes the final call.
He notes that even Ruto’s party, UDA, could undergo changes before 2027:
“Every party will want the running mate position, especially with Ruto being the incumbent. It will be complicated for him, but things change. Today Ruto is in UDA, but he might not be in 2027.”
This means alliances could shift, camps might reorganize, and political demands could increase as elections draw closer.
Who Are the Leading Contenders?
Several influential names are already being mentioned as possible running mate options for President Ruto. Analysts highlight at least five strong contenders:
- Gladys Wanga – Homa Bay Governor
- Musalia Mudavadi – Prime Cabinet Secretary
- Kimani Ichung’wah – Leader of Majority, National Assembly
- Ali Hassan Joho – Cabinet Secretary for Mining
- Kithure Kindiki – Deputy President
Each brings different strengths and political value.
Lumala says Kimani Ichung’wah and Joho are quietly rising as possible picks, while Kindiki remains a key political asset due to his regional influence:
“Kindiki is from Meru, and if you drop him, you risk losing that region. Central Kenya supporters may also feel betrayed. The president will be better advised when the time comes.”
What Will Influence Ruto’s Final Choice?
Analysts outline several major factors Ruto and his inner circle will consider as they evaluate potential running mates:
1. ODM Stability After Raila Odinga
With Raila Odinga gone from active politics, the ODM party is in a transition phase. Ruto will be watching closely to see whether ODM remains united or falls into internal divisions.
Gladys Wanga has emerged as a strong option because she could potentially help Ruto capture the Nyanza vote, especially if Mount Kenya support continues to decline.
But this benefit depends heavily on ODM’s unity:
“If ODM splits, they lose the bargaining power. The president will not give the position to someone who cannot bring numbers,” Lumala explains.
2. Western Kenya Dynamics
Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula may gain more influence depending on how politics unfold in the region. Lumala points out that the Malava by-election will be a major indicator. If Natembeya wins, the power balance in Western Kenya could shift, influencing Ruto’s choice.
3. Gender Balance
The gender factor remains a strong political card. Ruto has previously hinted at choosing a female running mate, a move that could appeal to a significant number of women voters nationwide.
Analyst Rotich says picking Gladys Wanga would be both a strategic and symbolic move:
“By choosing her, Ruto would consolidate the ODM base and show his commitment to gender inclusivity. This could reshape his image as a leader promoting equality and national unity.”
A Decision That Requires Careful Balancing
From Mount Kenya expectations to ODM influence and Western Kenya calculations, Ruto’s final choice will not simply be a political appointment — it will be a complex balancing act of regional power, public perception, and electoral mathematics.
Analysts warn that one wrong move could weaken his coalition, while the right choice could give him a significant advantage ahead of the 2027 race.
Which Opposition Ticket Could Beat Ruto in 2027?
Earlier, Newshub.co.ke reported that political analyst Herman Manyora suggested a powerful opposition lineup that he believes could defeat Ruto by more than 60% if well organized. He argued that a united opposition remains the biggest threat to Ruto’s re-election.
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