US Scientists Issue Warning as Kenya Faces Worsening Drought
Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a major weather and climate research agency in the United States, have raised fresh concerns about the growing drought situation in East Africa, especially in Kenya.
In a detailed advisory released on Thursday, November 20, NOAA explained that the region has experienced below-normal rainfall for nearly two months, a trend that has created widespread abnormal dryness.
The agency cautioned that this worrying pattern is expected to persist in the coming weeks if weather conditions do not change.
According to NOAA, the lack of rainfall has not only affected Kenya but has also deepened dryness across the broader Eastern Africa region, stretching into Ethiopia and Somalia.
The organisation noted that these countries continue to experience harsh weather conditions that may worsen if the short rains fail.
NOAA’s assessment showed that only light or minimal rainfall was recorded across most parts of East Africa over the past week. This included areas in western Ethiopia, Uganda, the Lake Victoria region, and several counties in central Kenya.
The agency added that the upcoming week is also likely to remain generally dry, with little rainfall expected in western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Uganda. Meanwhile, Rwanda, Burundi, and much of Tanzania may experience light to moderate showers.
The month of November usually marks the period for short rains in Kenya. However, NOAA warned that the unusual weather shift may lead to reduced food production, prolonged water shortages, and other challenges linked to extended dry weather.
Experts fear that the failure of short rains could place more pressure on households already dealing with high food prices and limited water access.
Despite the drought outlook in East Africa, NOAA projected that some southern African countries—including South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia—could receive above-normal rainfall, indicating a strong contrast in weather patterns across the African continent.
Locally, the Kenya Meteorological Department has also been monitoring the changing weather conditions. In its forecast issued on November 17, Kenya Met announced that most parts of the country, including Nairobi, Mombasa, and surrounding regions, would continue to experience sunny and dry conditions.
The forecast highlighted that dry weather would extend across the Rift Valley, Central Kenya, the Coastal region, and various parts of the Lake Victoria basin. These areas combined represent more than 32 counties, meaning a significant portion of the country will remain dry.
Even so, Kenya Met mentioned that light rains may still fall in a few regions, particularly within the Southeastern lowlands and selected counties around the Lake Victoria basin.
Counties likely to record some showers include Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, and Nakuru.
In addition to dry conditions, the weather department cautioned that residents living in the Highland East region—which covers counties such as Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Tharaka Nithi, and Nyeri—should expect cold nights during this period. These chilly nights are linked to the clear skies that come with prolonged dry weather.
Overall, both NOAA and the Kenya Meteorological Department agree that the current drought trend requires close monitoring. If the dry spell continues, experts warn that the impacts could be felt in agriculture, water supply, and general livelihoods across many parts of Kenya.
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