President Yoweri Museveni’s recent remarks warning of a possible war between Kenya and Uganda over the Indian Ocean have caused a heated debate across the region.
Many Kenyans reacted sharply, questioning whether Uganda truly has the strength or military ability to confront Kenya.
After days of public speculation, the Kenyan government finally addressed the issue, urging calm and emphasizing diplomacy.
Kenya Downplays Museveni’s Remarks
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei reassured the public that Kenya remains committed to respecting international territorial laws and maintaining peaceful relations with all countries.
He emphasized that Kenya will continue following established legal frameworks and regional cooperation policies under President William Ruto’s government.
Sing’oei added that Kenya’s foreign policy strongly focuses on unity within the East African Community (EAC), regional peace and security, and the welfare of Kenyans living abroad.
In a post shared on social media, he noted that the relationship with EAC member states remains important and must be handled with care and diplomacy.
Does Uganda Have the Capacity to Fight Kenya?
To give deeper insight into the matter, political analysts Mark Bichachi and Philip Mwangale offered detailed views in an exclusive discussion with Newshub.co.ke.
Analyst Mark Bichachi: Uganda Cannot Match Kenya Militarily
According to Bichachi, Museveni’s threats do not hold water because Uganda simply lacks the military strength to challenge Kenya, especially over a matter involving the sea.
Bichachi explained that Uganda has no navy capable of confronting Kenya’s naval forces. Since the issue Museveni raised involves the Indian Ocean, Bichachi argued that naval power is essential — something Uganda does not possess.
He further pointed out that Kenya’s Defence Forces are better funded, equipped, and have larger personnel compared to Uganda’s military.
He also reminded the public that Uganda is a landlocked country and depends heavily on Kenya for access to seaports to receive goods from overseas. Starting a conflict with Kenya would disrupt Uganda’s own supply routes.
“While he is attacking Kenya, which route will Uganda use to receive its goods? Moreover, Uganda is part of the East African Community and enjoys the benefits of a shared customs union.
The EAC allows free movement of goods and services, so Museveni should not create unnecessary panic over an issue that has no basis,” Bichachi argued.
Analyst Philip Mwangale: Museveni’s Claims Have No Legal Foundation
Lawyer and political analyst Philip Mwangale also dismissed Museveni’s remarks, saying they lack legitimacy. He explained that Uganda has no legal or historical claim to the Indian Ocean, making Museveni’s comments nothing more than political outbursts.
According to Mwangale, Kenya only controls the section of the ocean within its internationally recognized maritime borders, and Uganda has no grounds to dispute that.
“There is really nothing to what he said. Uganda has no legitimate or legal claim to the ocean. Those were just emotional statements, not supported by facts,” he said.
Ugandan Army Delegation Arrives in Kenya
Interestingly, even as Museveni’s remarks made headlines, Uganda’s military leadership was already in Kenya for a friendly working visit.
A high-level delegation from the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), led by Deputy Commander of Land Forces Major General Francis Takirwa, arrived in Nairobi for a benchmarking mission.
According to the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), the purpose of the visit was to strengthen cooperation between the two countries’ militaries.
The teams discussed ways to improve collaboration, share knowledge, and enhance security partnerships within the region.
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